Moving-Average Crossover vs Strategya on Ether, 2018 to 2026
Same Ether data, same costs: holding, a classic EMA crossover with volume filters, and Strategya ETH 1D, since 2018 and since 2023. Simulated backtest, with the drawdowns.
Table of contents
Second in our series after the Bitcoin comparison. Same question, same method: on the same Ether data and with the same costs, how do holding, a classic moving-average crossover and Strategya ETH 1D compare?
In 3 lines
- Since 2023, $1,000 became $1,941 by holding Ether, $3,271 with a classic crossover, and $9,616 with Strategya ETH 1D. The worst falls on the way: 68%, 38% and 14%.
- Since 2018: $3,086, $35,447 and $62,979, with worst falls of 94%, 62% and 29%.
- Everything below is a simulated backtest on past prices, not money that was made, and not investment advice. Both rules were designed with knowledge of part of this history.
The three ways to hold Ether
Holding. Buy on the first day, never sell. Ether's holder has had a harder ride than Bitcoin's: a 94% fall in 2018 and a 68% fall in 2022.
A moving-average crossover. The same classic rule as in the Bitcoin post: buy when the 27-day exponential average crosses above the 50-day one and volume confirms the move (price above its 5-day volume-weighted average, Money Flow Index between 47.5 and 73); sell when the fast average closes back below the slow one. Long or cash, never short, no stop loss. We built it years ago as a baseline.
Strategya ETH 1D. Our published rule for Ether, on the catalog: a trend-following rule checked once a day at the close, long or cash, never short, with a smoother read of the trend and a quicker exit when it breaks.
How we measured
Daily closes of ETHUSDT on Binance, from January 1, 2018 to October 25, 2026. $1,000 at the start of each window, 100% of the money in each trade, 0.1% commission per side, no slippage model. Drawdown is measured on daily closes, the harder of the two readings we publish. All three curves were run in the same backtest engine; Strategya's rule is additionally reconciled against TradingView trade by trade, the crossover baseline is not.
Since 2023
| 2023 → Oct 2026 | Holding ETH | MA crossover | Strategya ETH 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,000 became | $1,941 | $3,271 | $9,616 |
| Multiple | ×1.94 | ×3.27 | ×9.62 |
| CAGR | 19% | 36% | 81% |
| Worst fall | 67.6% | 38.0% | 14.1% |
| MAR (return / worst fall) | 0.28 | 0.96 | 5.75 |
| Closed trades | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| Winning trades | — | 67% | 73% |
| Time in the market | 100% | 46% | 32% |
Holding Ether since 2023 meant living through a 68% fall for a ×1.94 result. The crossover avoided the worst of it and ended ahead of holding, but still fell 38% from a peak. Strategya was in the market a third of the time, made 15 trades, and ended five times above holding with the smallest fall of the three.
Since 2018
| 2018 → Oct 2026 | Holding ETH | MA crossover | Strategya ETH 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,000 became | $3,086 | $35,447 | $62,979 |
| Multiple | ×3.09 | ×35.4 | ×63.0 |
| CAGR | 14% | 50% | 60% |
| Worst fall | 94.0% | 62.2% | 28.8% |
| MAR (return / worst fall) | 0.15 | 0.80 | 2.09 |
| Closed trades | 1 | 13 | 33 |
Over nine years the crossover is far ahead of holding, which says more about Ether's 2018 than about the crossover: a rule that simply steps aside in a 94% fall wins by a mile. But it still fell 62% from a peak along the way. Strategya's worst fall over the same span was 29%.
Year by year
| Year | Holding ETH | MA crossover | Strategya ETH 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | −83% | −26% | −18% |
| 2019 | −2% | +54% | +54% |
| 2020 | +470% | +138% | +132% |
| 2021 | +399% | +363% | +92% |
| 2022 | −68% | −14% | +16% |
| 2023 | +91% | +56% | +85% |
| 2024 | +46% | +30% | +101% |
| 2025 | −11% | +46% | +86% |
| 2026 to Oct 25 | −22% | +10% | +39% |
This table is the honest part. In the two great years of Ether, 2020 and 2021, holding won and the crossover came close; Strategya gave up a large part of 2021 by stepping out early. Everywhere else, Strategya wins, including a positive 2022 while Ether fell 68%, and 2025 and 2026, two years in which holding lost money. A rule that protects the downside pays for it in the wildest upside years. Over the full span, the protection was worth more.
What the crossover gets right, and where it fails
Right: the big idea. Stepping aside in bear markets turned Ether's ×3 into ×35 over nine years. Wrong: the details. It exits late, so it keeps a large part of each fall before the slow average confirms it (62% at worst); it gets whipsawed when Ether moves sideways, as in 2024; and its only exit is the crossover itself.
Strategya's rule reads the trend with a smoother engine, exits sooner when it weakens, and adds a hard stop. The price is more trades, 33 against 13 since 2018, with their commissions, already included above, and a smaller share of the two euphoric years.
Limits of this comparison
- A backtest is a simulation on past prices. It shows how a rule would have behaved, not what it will do.
- Both rules were designed with knowledge of part of this history. That is why we publish the full history, not a chosen window.
- Drawdowns on daily closes are milder than intraday lows. Real falls felt worse.
- None of this is investment advice. Ether can lose most of its value, with or without a rule.
See it on your own numbers
The Simulator scales each published strategy to the amount you choose, and the Lab lets you replay ETH 1D trade by trade against the price. If you want to see what the rule says today, try everything free for 7 days. No credit card: create your account and confirm your email.
Simulated backtest · not real performance · not investment advice.
Strategya.pro