BTC 1D: a rule-based Bitcoin strategy on the daily chart

    Long only. One decision per day, at the 00:00 UTC close. Either long Bitcoin or in cash.

    How it works

    The strategy is a fixed, written trend-following rule evaluated once per bar on the closing price. When the rule says in, the strategy is long Bitcoin; when it says out, it is in cash (USDT). It never shorts.

    The rule (v3.8) has not changed since August 28, 2026. Every signal is produced by the same code, so the backtest and the daily signal come from one source.

    See how to read a strategy card

    Backtest by window

    Drawdown is the hardest reading we have for each window. Windows are chosen by market regime, not by result.
    WindowCAGRMax drawdownMARSharpeTradesWin rateBuy & hold
    CAGRMax drawdown
    Full history2018-01-01 → 2026-11-0457.1%28.8%1.991.623053.3%22.5%81.2%
    Since 20222022-01-01 → 2026-11-0446.4%17.5%2.661.641662.5%11.4%66.9%
    Since 20232023-01-01 → 2026-11-0464.5%17.5%3.691.911471.4%50.8%53%
    2 years2024-11-04 → 2026-11-0446.2%10%4.611.84580%8.9%53%
    1 year2025-11-04 → 2026-11-0425.9%6.9%3.741.272100%-20.7%44.7%
    6 months2026-05-04 → 2026-11-0428.8%6.9%4.161.171100%1.6%28.7%

    Versus holding Bitcoin

    Since 2023 · 2023-01-01 → 2026-11-04

    Strategy

    CAGR
    64.5%
    Max drawdown
    17.5%
    MAR
    3.69

    Buy & hold

    CAGR
    50.8%
    Max drawdown
    53%
    MAR
    0.96

    The point of the rule is the drawdown column, not the return column.

    Follow it

    BTC 1D is in the Entry plan (USD 5/month).

    See plansStart the 7-day free trial

    The live position and the full card are on the Catalog. · All strategies · Simulate $1,000 in this strategy →